Ripple unlocked roughly 1 billion XRP from escrow on February 1, sticking to its long-running monthly release schedule as the token entered February on weak footing. The unlock followed a soft January close, with XRP down 10.6% for the month and selling pressure extending into the new month in line with the broader market drawdown. The headline is not surprise supply, it is predictable issuance colliding with fragile sentiment.
XRP fell to $1.50 on the final trading day of January, its lowest level since the October market crash. By the time of publication, XRP was trading near $1.57, down nearly 5% over 24 hours and more than 6% in the first two days of February. The supply event is routine, but the tape is fragile enough that routine can still feel catalytic. Ripple typically relocks 60% to 80% of each release, yet traders are watching whether net supply adds pressure.
🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 🔓 400,000,000 #XRP (646,794,569 USD) unlocked at #Ripplehttps://t.co/TEbxnbD3oN
— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) February 1, 2026
Escrow program keeps net supply constrained
According to on-chain data, the February unlock was executed through four transfers of 100 million, 400 million, 100 million, and 400 million XRP, valued around $1.6 billion. Ripple has consistently framed these releases as a structured supply-management program rather than an unexpected market event. The operating model is designed for transparency: up to 1 billion XRP can be released each month on a predictable cadence. The program began in 2017, when Ripple placed 55 billion XRP into escrow.
Under the framework, the company typically re-locks 60% to 80% of the tokens and retains the remainder for operational needs or liquidity demand. That pattern repeated this month. Whale Alert reported that Ripple re-locked 700 million XRP via two transactions totaling 400 million and 300 million XRP, worth roughly $1.09 billion combined. Net issuance after the sequence was about 300 million XRP, keeping the headline number from fully translating into free float.
Price weakness highlights a credibility gap
The unlock landed as XRP sentiment turned defensive. With the token trading near $1.57 after dropping more than 6% in the first two days of February, the debate shifted to whether the slide is a pause or a deeper unwind. Commentary in the report splits between “cycle patience” and “re-accumulation,” and both camps treat price as a signal, not a slogan. One analyst argued XRP is following the same pattern as prior cycles and suggested the next pump may not arrive until Q4 2028, projecting $8 to $10-plus.
XRP is down 60% from its all-time high, has breached a four-year descending wedge resistance, and is consolidating in a re-accumulation phase after a 600% impulse from the $0.60 breakout. Ripple CTO David Schwartz added that if investors truly believed a 10% chance of $100, XRP would not trade far below $10. The gap, he argued, exposes optimism as talk.